How the score is computed.
Signals
Seven weighted signals, each scored 0-100 (50 = neutral), refreshed every 30 minutes from free public sources:
- Regulatory Climate (22%) - Google News on the export directive. Headlines are classified by an open LLM (Cloudflare Workers AI) for easing-vs-tightening direction, which handles negation and questions; falls back to negation-guarded keyword matching if the model is unavailable.
- Prediction Markets (22%) - volume-weighted YES odds on Fable 5 returning, blended from Polymarket (real-money, weighted higher) and Manifold. The crowd's aggregated forecast.
- Status Page (13%) - the official Anthropic/Claude status page. Maps the live Fable 5 incident lifecycle (investigating, then monitoring, then resolved); a resolved incident jumps the signal toward 100.
- Export Rulemaking (13%) - US Federal Register, easing vs tightening language in recent Bureau of Industry & Security export-control rules (the upstream cause of the suspension). Bounded so a routinely-restrictive regime reads "leaning locked", not zero.
- Media Tone (12%) - GDELT global news tone and coverage trend on the Fable 5 story, refreshed roughly every 15 minutes.
- Anthropic News (10%) - posts on anthropic.com/news, also LLM-classified (keyword fallback).
- Community Buzz (8%) - volume of Hacker News discussion over the last 7 days (log-scaled).
Composite
The signals are combined as a weighted mean. When two or more signals are simultaneously "hot" (above 60), a bounded alignment bonus closes part of the gap to 100 (it is additive, not a multiplier, to avoid saturation).
Smoothing
The composite is passed through an asymmetric exponential moving average: it rises quickly on good news and decays slowly (a built-in skepticism). Bands: Frozen 0-30, Uncertain 31-60, Thawing 61-85, Return Imminent 86-100.
A note on the trend chart
History before launch day is a model reconstruction - the real scoring engine run over plausible past signal values from the June 12 suspension - not measured readings. Everything from launch onward is live.